5 November—With this year’s election out of the way, consider what actually gets candidates elected. Here are many of the variables to consider, presented in alphabetical order, with overlapping and implicit repetition.

They include: advertising; appearance of candidates; associations of candidates; boredom; bribes; campaigns overall; credentials; debates; distrust of opposing candidates; door-to-door; election fraud; endorsements by press and others; experience; family connections and reputation; fear; friends in the right places, including but not limited to voters; gerrymandering; giveaways; hope (which springs eternal in politics).

Impatience; influence; intelligence of candidates and campaigns; intelligence gathering (spying); knocking copy, true or false; lies; location; luck; mailings; money; opposition; paid workers; party affiliation; payoffs; perception; personal appearances; personality; polls; presentation; promises; record; reputation; scandal; signage; spending; threats; time for a change; timing; trust; volunteers; voter suppression.

Does any one of those factors determine the victor and loser of any election? Of course not. But most play a part to a greater or lesser extent. And, notwithstanding allegedly expert polling, predicting an election (or referendum) result is as much art as science—and not very reliable.

Trump’s victory over Clinton in 2016 is a prime example. Few pollsters gave Trump any chance at all. And he spent only about half of what she spent. (And, of course, lots of his spending was with his own companies.)

Newspaper endorsements are generally an ego trip for editorial boards and pretty well ignored by voters. I remember, for instance, back in the good old days when the Waterbury Republican, as it was then, endorsed a liberal Democrat for a seat in the Connecticut General Assembly over a conservative Republican. Twice. And the Republican won hands down both times.

Do people actually read political mailings before they toss them? And if people do read the mailings, do they take the campaign verbiage—most of which is meaningless clichés—seriously?

And, according to the blessed experts, lawn signs—usually called yard signs around here—have minimal influence on elections. But, like baseball caps and sweatshirts, they identify people with groups. And people have to identify with groups and show their friends.

All things considered, then, the results of an election boil down to nothing more than good old-fashioned luck. Am I right or am I right? And the candidate who gives out dark chocolate bars . . .